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Today is September 20, which means we are three months out from the domestic debut (counting previews) of Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc.’s Aquaman. The Jason Momoa-starring undersea adventure will be one of a handful of very big and relatively important Christmas season releases, but it’s probably the one with the most attention being paid. So, because I enjoy doing these and because it allows me to do some research well ahead of the actual debut, here is the pessimistic box office prediction for James Wan’s Aquaman.

I occasionally do a best-case-scenario and worst-case-scenario write-up for a major upcoming release. This time will be the Murphy’s Law version, with the intent to drop an “everything goes swimmingly” hypothetical for tomorrow (it’s actual opening day). I should note that neither of these should be considered predictions and that Warner Bros. is on such a streak (with A Star Is Born and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald still to come) that they have no reason to treat Aquaman as a do-or-die release. So, without further ado, here we go…

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